The world is on track for dangerous levels of global warming – far beyond the 1.5°C limit scientists say is safe. Current policies could lead to 2.5–3°C of warming by the end of the century, and incremental change is no longer enough. At the same time, the global political order is shifting, creating new challenges for cooperation and climate action. This talk explores why traditional “net zero” strategies are failing and argues for a rapid transition to a sufficiency economy – one that guarantees a decent standard of living for all while setting limits on excessive production and consumption. Achieving this will require strong state action, democratic planning, and bold industrial policies. To illustrate what this might look like, we draw lessons from history: the radical economic mobilisation in the UK during World War II, which restructured production, consumption, finance, and labour at unprecedented speed and scale – while improving health, reducing mortality, and leaving lower social strata better off than before the war. Could similar principles guide a just and fast eco-social transition today?

Richard Bärnthaler is a political ecological economist at the Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds, where he leads the Economics and Policy for Sustainability (Econopol) research group. He serves on the board of the European Society for Ecological Economics, is an associate editor at Sustainability: Science, Practice and Policy, a lead author for the Austrian Panel on Climate Change, and an expert member of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures